How to add variance
Change one assumption at a time, and be able to name it.
Variance is easiest to manage when it is explicit. You might believe an overlooked bowler will receive a favorable phase, or that a player’s batting position is likely to improve after a lineup change. State the reason, check that it is compatible with the announced XI, and avoid stacking several unrelated assumptions into one team.
A grand-league team does not need every selection to be unusual. A role-secure core can coexist with one or two well-reasoned pivots and a captaincy choice that reflects the expected match script. A team made entirely of low-probability outcomes is difficult to evaluate and harder to improve.
In smaller contests, the same discipline protects against unnecessary changes. A popular selection is not automatically correct, but replacing a player with clear opportunity solely to be different usually weakens the original process.